Why switch off and limit power? Interpretation of the three scholars: it will not last too long, and the energy transformation must be considered as a whole
2021-10-05
Recently, power rationing has swept many places. Why are there power cuts and production restrictions in many provinces? How long will this phenomenon last? How to solve this problem? Under the dual carbon goal, how to find a balance between the stable economic growth, reducing energy consumption and ensuring energy security? Around these problems, the reporter invited a number of experts in the energy field to explain in detail the root causes and impact behind power rationing.
The three experts said that there are two main reasons for switching off and limiting power and production. One is the problem of power supply and demand; Second, the impact of energy consumption dual control policy. One belt, one road, China, is the Xiamen University, the president of the China Energy Policy Research Institute, Lin Boqiang. It mainly elaborates from the perspective of demand side. Dong Xiucheng, director of the energy trade and development research center of University of International Business and Economics, has corresponded with it from the supply side perspective.
Ding Rijia, Dean of the school of management of China University of mining and Technology (Beijing), said that with the close cooperation of multiple government departments, a series of combination measures have been launched, including the full coverage of power generation and heating enterprises required by the state, and the signing of medium and long-term agreements and contracts with coal enterprises on coal consumption and power generation. The duration of power and production restriction will not be too long.
Focus 1: why do many places switch off and limit power at the same time?
Expert: superposition of power supply and demand and dual control of energy consumption
Power rationing and shutdown are sweeping more than 10 provinces, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangxi and Yunnan. For example, in the northeast, Jilin and Liaoning provinces have adopted strict power cut-off and power restriction for residents in some areas. In Guangdong, factories in the Pearl River Delta "open one stop six".
Why are power rationing, shutdown and even "switching off" in many provinces at the same time? Lin Boqiang pointed out that there are two factors affecting power and production restriction: mainly the problem of power supply and demand, and the dual control of energy consumption may also have an impact.
He further explained that from the demand side, from January to August this year, the demand for power consumption increased rapidly, which can be said to be the largest in recent years; From the supply side, in the past, the overall power demand was weak, and the power demand of industrial enterprises was relatively strong. This year, the power demand increased rapidly, and there was a contradiction between supply and demand when the power system remained unchanged. However, it does not rule out the backward configuration of the whole power system.
At the same time, the market understands that the rise of coal is mainly due to insufficient production capacity, which is related to some restrictions on coal production capacity and imported coal - although the proportion of imported coal is very small, even a small piece will have a great impact when the whole coal supply and demand is tight.
"The rise of coal has led to the lack of enthusiasm of power generation enterprises and difficulties in the operation of power generation enterprises." Lin Boqiang pointed out that thermal power accounts for more than 70% this year. If the price of coal alone rises and the price of electricity in the power generation industry does not rise, it can be seen that the inventory of thermal power enterprises continues to decrease and the "output" of overall coal power generation decreases.
Ding Rijia, Dean of the school of management of China University of mining and Technology (Beijing), holds a similar view. He believes that the most direct reasons for the power cut-off include two aspects. One is the implementation of the dual control policy of energy consumption. As more than a dozen provinces are in the red early warning, there is great pressure to complete the goal. Therefore, they dare not consume and restrict the power supply.
Second, the contradiction between domestic power supply and demand. As the domestic power supply is dominated by "thermal power", accounting for more than 60%. Moreover, the overall power demand is increasing year by year. From 2010 to 2019, the basic average annual increase is 6.3%, and according to the forecast, the power demand will continue to increase in the future.
He also said that in recent years, the government has issued and implemented many policies for coal, including coal de capacity, as well as constraints on safety and environmental protection of coal production. He cited data to point out that during the 13th Five Year Plan period, more than 5500 coal mines were actually withdrawn from the country, with a production capacity of more than 1 billion tons.
"On the above multiple basis, the coal production capacity is relatively tight relative to the demand, and the coal price has been running at a high level." Ding Rijia said that the power generation cost of power generation enterprises has increased, but the power generation price has not increased, so the enterprises do not have much enthusiasm for power generation. Moreover, many power generation enterprises are facing losses when the production capacity is not released and the coal price is high.
Ding Rijia said that with the increase of power demand, if there is no breakthrough in the development of new energy or energy storage technology, coal power may still maintain a certain proportion in the whole energy structure. "According to our prediction, by 2030 or at least in the 14th Five Year Plan period, the output of basic coal will be maintained at about 41 tons, and the overall consumption may be more than 42 tons."
Dong Xiucheng, director of one belt, one road energy trade and Development Research Center, said that the phenomenon of power restriction on the sluice was not this year, but in recent years, it has already appeared. He also said that previously, the oil shortage and gas shortage often occurred in the oil and gas industry were the same as the "power shortage" caused by the current power cut-off, that is, the economic operation of the whole energy system was unbalanced.
In his opinion, first of all, the imbalance should be analyzed from the supply side and the demand side. However, on the demand side, the increase in consumer demand this year is mainly due to the small foundation last year, so demand is not the most important.
"The key to the problem is that power generation enterprises do not have enough power to drive power generation." Dong Xiucheng said that coal prices rise rapidly, enterprise purchase costs rise sharply, and electricity prices are regulated prices, which is difficult to transmit. In fact, the more power generation enterprises have, the more serious the loss is, and some small enterprises will be more negative and produce less power generation as much as possible.
Second, the problem of dual control of energy consumption. Dong Xiucheng said that the main reason for the "power shortage" in previous years was the dual control policy. This round of power restriction is the superposition of the dual control policy itself and supply side problems. The situation of each province is different, the proportion weight is different, and the consideration basis is different.
Focus 2: how long will the power and production restriction last?
Expert: "it will not last long, and the cross annual assessment may alleviate the urgency of the implementation of the dual control policy of energy consumption"
For the "power cut-off", the three northeastern provinces and other regions responded quickly. For example, on September 26, Liaoning held a power guarantee work conference, which required to ensure orderly power consumption and avoid switching off and power restriction as much as possible. Jilin Province also held a dispatching meeting to ensure the supply of power coal and the operation of industry in the winter.
How long will the power cut-off last and what will be the future power supply situation? It is still a matter of public concern.
In this regard, Lin Boqiang said that the duration of the power cut-off depends on the measures taken by the government. "On the one hand, coal mines and power enterprises are mainly state-owned enterprises. If the government is willing to introduce a more strict measure to increase coal production, the problem can be solved soon; however, from the perspective of double control objectives, all provinces are facing this situation this year. Therefore, the government can consider this problem leniently and expand the assessment span."
In his view, the difference between this year and previous years is that with the improvement of the epidemic, the economy gradually recovers and the power demand increases rapidly, but it will not be so high next year. "Under this trend, it will be a little easier for all places next year. Therefore, the cross annual assessment may alleviate the urgency of the implementation of the dual control policy of energy consumption."
"With the introduction of multi policy combination measures, the duration of power rationing will not be too long." Ding Rijia believes that the state has taken many measures, such as requiring all power generation and heating enterprises to use coal and power generation in full coverage, and signing medium and long-term agreements and contracts with coal enterprises; Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau have also presided over the work. In ensuring the increase of safe production capacity, the coal production capacity may be released, and the coal price may not continue to grow.
However, Ding Rijia believes that in order to establish a long-term mechanism to solve the problem of switching off and limiting power and production, we need to choose an intermediate route between power supply and demand and energy consumption. "At present, if there is no breakthrough in new energy and energy storage technology, coal power should be maintained at a certain level, and advanced production capacity and coal production capacity should be released to stabilize coal prices, which may solve the long-term fundamental problem."
Dong Xiucheng said that the government can play a "tangible hand" role in solving the problem of power and production restriction by switching off, and may relax the coal production capacity and coal control; However, the government should also consider other factors, take into account coal control, double carbon target, double control of energy consumption and other issues, and should not completely liberalize just because the problem is solved. "No matter what the government does, it is most concerned about people's livelihood. It should ensure that there are no problems in people's livelihood power consumption, and the power supply demand to ensure people's livelihood should be the policy bottom line." Dong Xiucheng stressed.
Lin Boqiang also said that this sharp fluctuation is neither the first nor the last time. How should we deal with it? We can learn from this problem and make it better to face similar problems in the future. "
Focus 3: how to avoid "one size fits all" power rationing and how to change the energy structure?
Expert: energy transformation must be considered as a whole. The adjustment of the whole economic structure is a very key content of energy transformation
The problem behind the phenomenon of power and production restriction is how to transform the energy structure? It is particularly noteworthy that under the dual carbon target, there have been some deviation phenomena. Since July this year, the central authorities and ministries have repeatedly stressed the need to establish first and then break down, correct the campaign "carbon reduction", and prevent some places from "one size fits all" shutting down high energy consuming projects. Then, under the dual carbon goal, how to find a balance between the stable economic growth, reducing energy consumption and ensuring energy security?
Lin Boqiang said that due to the current energy structure and industrial structure, the demand for coal for rapid economic growth is contradictory to the overall direction of carbon neutralization. Taking electric power as an example, this situation is related to 70% of China's power consumption industry and about 70% of coal power supply structure. For example, if the economy is good and the demand for electricity is high, the greater the coal consumption; Economic easing can reduce coal consumption.
In his opinion, high-quality economic growth in the process of "carbon neutralization" requires "double decoupling" as far as possible: one is to decouple from fossil energy as far as possible, and the other is to decouple economic growth from the growth of energy and power consumption as far as possible.
"China's high energy consuming industries have a large capacity, and the capacity of several industries is close to 60% of the world. To achieve the double carbon goal, the development of high energy consuming enterprises must be controlled." Lin Boqiang said that if we can control high energy consumption and encourage high-tech and low energy consuming industries to move forward, the whole energy consumption structure can be greatly changed.
Ding Rijia said that how to gradually adjust the energy structure is a very complex problem. "During the adjustment, we hope that the proportion of new energy or clean energy will increase significantly, but often if there is no significant breakthrough in energy storage technology, the security of power grid will be threatened."
In this regard, Ding Rijia proposed that another idea to achieve the dual carbon goal is whether coal can be turned into a clean energy. "Because coal does not directly emit carbon dioxide in the process of mining, it mainly emits carbon in the process of utilization, which is concentrated in four major industries: power generation, steelmaking, building materials and chemical industry. Can carbon dioxide be popularized, stored and even utilized in the industrial utilization?"
However, he also said that the topic of carbon dioxide storage and utilization has been discussed and studied for many years. In the future, we need to face the question of who is more economical? This involves the path adopted to achieve the double carbon goal in the future. "We should really judge its path from a scientific point of view, and the coal itself is well utilized and clean."
When talking about the role of the government and the market, Lin Boqiang believed that the government should strictly control the development of high energy consuming industries; For the market, give play to the role and original intention of carbon trading.
He said that in theory, the cost of carbon trading must be transmitted to the next level, but at present, only the power industry carries out carbon trading. As long as the electricity price remains unchanged, the transmission cannot be carried out. It is difficult to realize the original intention of carbon trading to curb high energy consumption and improve efficiency.
"The carbon trading market has just begun, and it will improve in the future. Next, we may see the introduction of electricity price reform and other measures." Lin Boqiang said that the electricity price reform is combined with carbon trading, and there is hope to see the transmission of carbon trading costs and carbon neutralization costs to consumers in the future, so that high energy consumption will be restrained and technicians will be encouraged, Efficiency has been improved.
Dong Xiucheng stressed that the issue of energy transformation should not be planned solely from the perspective of energy, but must be considered as a whole. Among them, the adjustment of the whole economic structure is a very key content of energy transformation.
In his view, the government should handle the "two hands" well, use the two mechanisms together in the future, and give full play to the regulatory role of the market mechanism. For example, there is still great potential for energy efficiency, that is, how much energy is consumed per unit of GDP. It can be made to work through the market mechanism.
Dong Xiucheng believes that for China, the key is to establish a scientific and reasonable assessment mechanism, but to determine this set of assessment mechanism needs a stable scheme, and we can't try to go fast or think carelessly.
The three experts said that there are two main reasons for switching off and limiting power and production. One is the problem of power supply and demand; Second, the impact of energy consumption dual control policy. One belt, one road, China, is the Xiamen University, the president of the China Energy Policy Research Institute, Lin Boqiang. It mainly elaborates from the perspective of demand side. Dong Xiucheng, director of the energy trade and development research center of University of International Business and Economics, has corresponded with it from the supply side perspective.
Ding Rijia, Dean of the school of management of China University of mining and Technology (Beijing), said that with the close cooperation of multiple government departments, a series of combination measures have been launched, including the full coverage of power generation and heating enterprises required by the state, and the signing of medium and long-term agreements and contracts with coal enterprises on coal consumption and power generation. The duration of power and production restriction will not be too long.
Focus 1: why do many places switch off and limit power at the same time?
Expert: superposition of power supply and demand and dual control of energy consumption
Power rationing and shutdown are sweeping more than 10 provinces, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangxi and Yunnan. For example, in the northeast, Jilin and Liaoning provinces have adopted strict power cut-off and power restriction for residents in some areas. In Guangdong, factories in the Pearl River Delta "open one stop six".
Why are power rationing, shutdown and even "switching off" in many provinces at the same time? Lin Boqiang pointed out that there are two factors affecting power and production restriction: mainly the problem of power supply and demand, and the dual control of energy consumption may also have an impact.
He further explained that from the demand side, from January to August this year, the demand for power consumption increased rapidly, which can be said to be the largest in recent years; From the supply side, in the past, the overall power demand was weak, and the power demand of industrial enterprises was relatively strong. This year, the power demand increased rapidly, and there was a contradiction between supply and demand when the power system remained unchanged. However, it does not rule out the backward configuration of the whole power system.
At the same time, the market understands that the rise of coal is mainly due to insufficient production capacity, which is related to some restrictions on coal production capacity and imported coal - although the proportion of imported coal is very small, even a small piece will have a great impact when the whole coal supply and demand is tight.
"The rise of coal has led to the lack of enthusiasm of power generation enterprises and difficulties in the operation of power generation enterprises." Lin Boqiang pointed out that thermal power accounts for more than 70% this year. If the price of coal alone rises and the price of electricity in the power generation industry does not rise, it can be seen that the inventory of thermal power enterprises continues to decrease and the "output" of overall coal power generation decreases.
Ding Rijia, Dean of the school of management of China University of mining and Technology (Beijing), holds a similar view. He believes that the most direct reasons for the power cut-off include two aspects. One is the implementation of the dual control policy of energy consumption. As more than a dozen provinces are in the red early warning, there is great pressure to complete the goal. Therefore, they dare not consume and restrict the power supply.
Second, the contradiction between domestic power supply and demand. As the domestic power supply is dominated by "thermal power", accounting for more than 60%. Moreover, the overall power demand is increasing year by year. From 2010 to 2019, the basic average annual increase is 6.3%, and according to the forecast, the power demand will continue to increase in the future.
He also said that in recent years, the government has issued and implemented many policies for coal, including coal de capacity, as well as constraints on safety and environmental protection of coal production. He cited data to point out that during the 13th Five Year Plan period, more than 5500 coal mines were actually withdrawn from the country, with a production capacity of more than 1 billion tons.
"On the above multiple basis, the coal production capacity is relatively tight relative to the demand, and the coal price has been running at a high level." Ding Rijia said that the power generation cost of power generation enterprises has increased, but the power generation price has not increased, so the enterprises do not have much enthusiasm for power generation. Moreover, many power generation enterprises are facing losses when the production capacity is not released and the coal price is high.
Ding Rijia said that with the increase of power demand, if there is no breakthrough in the development of new energy or energy storage technology, coal power may still maintain a certain proportion in the whole energy structure. "According to our prediction, by 2030 or at least in the 14th Five Year Plan period, the output of basic coal will be maintained at about 41 tons, and the overall consumption may be more than 42 tons."
Dong Xiucheng, director of one belt, one road energy trade and Development Research Center, said that the phenomenon of power restriction on the sluice was not this year, but in recent years, it has already appeared. He also said that previously, the oil shortage and gas shortage often occurred in the oil and gas industry were the same as the "power shortage" caused by the current power cut-off, that is, the economic operation of the whole energy system was unbalanced.
In his opinion, first of all, the imbalance should be analyzed from the supply side and the demand side. However, on the demand side, the increase in consumer demand this year is mainly due to the small foundation last year, so demand is not the most important.
"The key to the problem is that power generation enterprises do not have enough power to drive power generation." Dong Xiucheng said that coal prices rise rapidly, enterprise purchase costs rise sharply, and electricity prices are regulated prices, which is difficult to transmit. In fact, the more power generation enterprises have, the more serious the loss is, and some small enterprises will be more negative and produce less power generation as much as possible.
Second, the problem of dual control of energy consumption. Dong Xiucheng said that the main reason for the "power shortage" in previous years was the dual control policy. This round of power restriction is the superposition of the dual control policy itself and supply side problems. The situation of each province is different, the proportion weight is different, and the consideration basis is different.
Focus 2: how long will the power and production restriction last?
Expert: "it will not last long, and the cross annual assessment may alleviate the urgency of the implementation of the dual control policy of energy consumption"
For the "power cut-off", the three northeastern provinces and other regions responded quickly. For example, on September 26, Liaoning held a power guarantee work conference, which required to ensure orderly power consumption and avoid switching off and power restriction as much as possible. Jilin Province also held a dispatching meeting to ensure the supply of power coal and the operation of industry in the winter.
How long will the power cut-off last and what will be the future power supply situation? It is still a matter of public concern.
In this regard, Lin Boqiang said that the duration of the power cut-off depends on the measures taken by the government. "On the one hand, coal mines and power enterprises are mainly state-owned enterprises. If the government is willing to introduce a more strict measure to increase coal production, the problem can be solved soon; however, from the perspective of double control objectives, all provinces are facing this situation this year. Therefore, the government can consider this problem leniently and expand the assessment span."
In his view, the difference between this year and previous years is that with the improvement of the epidemic, the economy gradually recovers and the power demand increases rapidly, but it will not be so high next year. "Under this trend, it will be a little easier for all places next year. Therefore, the cross annual assessment may alleviate the urgency of the implementation of the dual control policy of energy consumption."
"With the introduction of multi policy combination measures, the duration of power rationing will not be too long." Ding Rijia believes that the state has taken many measures, such as requiring all power generation and heating enterprises to use coal and power generation in full coverage, and signing medium and long-term agreements and contracts with coal enterprises; Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau have also presided over the work. In ensuring the increase of safe production capacity, the coal production capacity may be released, and the coal price may not continue to grow.
However, Ding Rijia believes that in order to establish a long-term mechanism to solve the problem of switching off and limiting power and production, we need to choose an intermediate route between power supply and demand and energy consumption. "At present, if there is no breakthrough in new energy and energy storage technology, coal power should be maintained at a certain level, and advanced production capacity and coal production capacity should be released to stabilize coal prices, which may solve the long-term fundamental problem."
Dong Xiucheng said that the government can play a "tangible hand" role in solving the problem of power and production restriction by switching off, and may relax the coal production capacity and coal control; However, the government should also consider other factors, take into account coal control, double carbon target, double control of energy consumption and other issues, and should not completely liberalize just because the problem is solved. "No matter what the government does, it is most concerned about people's livelihood. It should ensure that there are no problems in people's livelihood power consumption, and the power supply demand to ensure people's livelihood should be the policy bottom line." Dong Xiucheng stressed.
Lin Boqiang also said that this sharp fluctuation is neither the first nor the last time. How should we deal with it? We can learn from this problem and make it better to face similar problems in the future. "
Focus 3: how to avoid "one size fits all" power rationing and how to change the energy structure?
Expert: energy transformation must be considered as a whole. The adjustment of the whole economic structure is a very key content of energy transformation
The problem behind the phenomenon of power and production restriction is how to transform the energy structure? It is particularly noteworthy that under the dual carbon target, there have been some deviation phenomena. Since July this year, the central authorities and ministries have repeatedly stressed the need to establish first and then break down, correct the campaign "carbon reduction", and prevent some places from "one size fits all" shutting down high energy consuming projects. Then, under the dual carbon goal, how to find a balance between the stable economic growth, reducing energy consumption and ensuring energy security?
Lin Boqiang said that due to the current energy structure and industrial structure, the demand for coal for rapid economic growth is contradictory to the overall direction of carbon neutralization. Taking electric power as an example, this situation is related to 70% of China's power consumption industry and about 70% of coal power supply structure. For example, if the economy is good and the demand for electricity is high, the greater the coal consumption; Economic easing can reduce coal consumption.
In his opinion, high-quality economic growth in the process of "carbon neutralization" requires "double decoupling" as far as possible: one is to decouple from fossil energy as far as possible, and the other is to decouple economic growth from the growth of energy and power consumption as far as possible.
"China's high energy consuming industries have a large capacity, and the capacity of several industries is close to 60% of the world. To achieve the double carbon goal, the development of high energy consuming enterprises must be controlled." Lin Boqiang said that if we can control high energy consumption and encourage high-tech and low energy consuming industries to move forward, the whole energy consumption structure can be greatly changed.
Ding Rijia said that how to gradually adjust the energy structure is a very complex problem. "During the adjustment, we hope that the proportion of new energy or clean energy will increase significantly, but often if there is no significant breakthrough in energy storage technology, the security of power grid will be threatened."
In this regard, Ding Rijia proposed that another idea to achieve the dual carbon goal is whether coal can be turned into a clean energy. "Because coal does not directly emit carbon dioxide in the process of mining, it mainly emits carbon in the process of utilization, which is concentrated in four major industries: power generation, steelmaking, building materials and chemical industry. Can carbon dioxide be popularized, stored and even utilized in the industrial utilization?"
However, he also said that the topic of carbon dioxide storage and utilization has been discussed and studied for many years. In the future, we need to face the question of who is more economical? This involves the path adopted to achieve the double carbon goal in the future. "We should really judge its path from a scientific point of view, and the coal itself is well utilized and clean."
When talking about the role of the government and the market, Lin Boqiang believed that the government should strictly control the development of high energy consuming industries; For the market, give play to the role and original intention of carbon trading.
He said that in theory, the cost of carbon trading must be transmitted to the next level, but at present, only the power industry carries out carbon trading. As long as the electricity price remains unchanged, the transmission cannot be carried out. It is difficult to realize the original intention of carbon trading to curb high energy consumption and improve efficiency.
"The carbon trading market has just begun, and it will improve in the future. Next, we may see the introduction of electricity price reform and other measures." Lin Boqiang said that the electricity price reform is combined with carbon trading, and there is hope to see the transmission of carbon trading costs and carbon neutralization costs to consumers in the future, so that high energy consumption will be restrained and technicians will be encouraged, Efficiency has been improved.
Dong Xiucheng stressed that the issue of energy transformation should not be planned solely from the perspective of energy, but must be considered as a whole. Among them, the adjustment of the whole economic structure is a very key content of energy transformation.
In his view, the government should handle the "two hands" well, use the two mechanisms together in the future, and give full play to the regulatory role of the market mechanism. For example, there is still great potential for energy efficiency, that is, how much energy is consumed per unit of GDP. It can be made to work through the market mechanism.
Dong Xiucheng believes that for China, the key is to establish a scientific and reasonable assessment mechanism, but to determine this set of assessment mechanism needs a stable scheme, and we can't try to go fast or think carelessly.
Source: Beijing News