Behind the power shortage: switching off and limiting power has nothing to do with dual control of energy consumption, and there is a big problem in China
2021-10-15
After the autumn, more than ten provinces in China have cut off power supply, and many production enterprises have to cut off power supply. The power shortage comes again after ten years, affecting the sensitive nerves of society.
Many industry insiders attributed the reason for local power cut-off to the dual control assessment of energy consumption. In fact, this is very one-sided. Energy consumption dual control has been implemented for many years, so switching off and power limiting has nothing to do with energy consumption dual control.
The biggest factor of power rationing is the shortage of power supply, and the problem of power supply shortage is multifaceted, and the core problem is the problem of China's power structure.
Coal power has lost capacity, and power security has been impacted
China has taken two measures to promote coal power de capacity: one is to limit coal mine capacity from the fuel side and check and balance the installed scale of coal power. From 2016 to now, coal production capacity has been reduced by more than one billion tons in five years.
The second is to remove the capacity of coal-fired power, suspend the launch of new coal-fired power projects, and shut down the existing small coal-fired generating units. By the end of 2020, the installed capacity of coal-fired power has historically decreased to less than 50%.
Coal is an important bulk commodity, which has been fully futures, and the reduction of production capacity means that the market is bullish. Driven by capital, the price of coal soared.
The installed capacity of coal power has dropped below 50%, which has shaken the foundation of power security. Coal prices soared while electricity prices remained unchanged, and a dime was paid for generating electricity, which seriously restricted the enthusiasm of existing power plants.
No output after work, excessive wind power + photovoltaic installation
After China put forward the 3060 double carbon target, it has become a trend for clean energy to replace fossil energy, and it has almost become a universal consensus to replace coal power by vigorously developing wind power and photovoltaic.
By the end of 2020, the installed scale of wind power and photovoltaic power has accounted for more than 25%, half of the installed scale of coal power, but the power generation of wind power and photovoltaic power is less than 10%, and the actual consumption is lower.
The annual new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power far exceeds that of coal power, which is the main reason why the installed capacity of coal power falls below 50%. The excessive installation of wind power + photovoltaic has had a great impact on the power structure of our country.
Wind power and photovoltaic power generation are greatly affected by climate change, and large-scale integration into the power grid has a great impact on power supply. Coal power production capacity is insufficient. It's strange that wind power and photovoltaic don't work and don't open the gate to limit power.
Agricultural and forestry biomass power generation has been seriously ignored
The removal of coal power capacity not only leads to the shortage of power supply, but also leads to the shortage of heat load supply in industrial production. A large number of coal-fired units have been shut down, resulting in many production enterprises unable to find a suitable alternative heat source.
China is rich in agricultural and forestry biomass resources, with an annual output equivalent to 460 million tons of standard coal, which can fully support the construction of thousands of biomass cogeneration projects of standard scale and fill the energy supply gap after the removal of coal power capacity.
Agricultural and forestry biomass power generation can be called green coal power. It not only has the power generation quality comparable to coal power, but also can replace coal-fired units to provide a stable heat source for industrial production. It has become the best choice for industrial parks and production enterprises.
However, China's agricultural and forestry biomass power generation industry has been seriously ignored, and the policy adjustment is very bad for the investment environment, which seriously restricts the capital's enthusiasm for agricultural and forestry biomass power generation investment, resulting in a small overall installed capacity.
epilogue
After China novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak, the world's manufacturing capacity has been greatly reduced, and many orders have been transferred to China. At present, it is the peak period of the "golden nine silver ten" order, which is the demand for electricity production of second production and three production.
The coal price is rising, the overall scale of coal power is compressed, and the power generation is greatly reduced; The power structure changed by wind power and photovoltaic is not output, and the scale of biomass power generation is too small to return to the sky.
The above factors have caused the imbalance between power supply and demand in China. How to solve the current dilemma requires us to re-examine the coal power de capacity policy and vigorously develop biomass cogeneration projects.
Many industry insiders attributed the reason for local power cut-off to the dual control assessment of energy consumption. In fact, this is very one-sided. Energy consumption dual control has been implemented for many years, so switching off and power limiting has nothing to do with energy consumption dual control.
The biggest factor of power rationing is the shortage of power supply, and the problem of power supply shortage is multifaceted, and the core problem is the problem of China's power structure.
Coal power has lost capacity, and power security has been impacted
China has taken two measures to promote coal power de capacity: one is to limit coal mine capacity from the fuel side and check and balance the installed scale of coal power. From 2016 to now, coal production capacity has been reduced by more than one billion tons in five years.
The second is to remove the capacity of coal-fired power, suspend the launch of new coal-fired power projects, and shut down the existing small coal-fired generating units. By the end of 2020, the installed capacity of coal-fired power has historically decreased to less than 50%.
Coal is an important bulk commodity, which has been fully futures, and the reduction of production capacity means that the market is bullish. Driven by capital, the price of coal soared.
The installed capacity of coal power has dropped below 50%, which has shaken the foundation of power security. Coal prices soared while electricity prices remained unchanged, and a dime was paid for generating electricity, which seriously restricted the enthusiasm of existing power plants.
No output after work, excessive wind power + photovoltaic installation
After China put forward the 3060 double carbon target, it has become a trend for clean energy to replace fossil energy, and it has almost become a universal consensus to replace coal power by vigorously developing wind power and photovoltaic.
By the end of 2020, the installed scale of wind power and photovoltaic power has accounted for more than 25%, half of the installed scale of coal power, but the power generation of wind power and photovoltaic power is less than 10%, and the actual consumption is lower.
The annual new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power far exceeds that of coal power, which is the main reason why the installed capacity of coal power falls below 50%. The excessive installation of wind power + photovoltaic has had a great impact on the power structure of our country.
Wind power and photovoltaic power generation are greatly affected by climate change, and large-scale integration into the power grid has a great impact on power supply. Coal power production capacity is insufficient. It's strange that wind power and photovoltaic don't work and don't open the gate to limit power.
Agricultural and forestry biomass power generation has been seriously ignored
The removal of coal power capacity not only leads to the shortage of power supply, but also leads to the shortage of heat load supply in industrial production. A large number of coal-fired units have been shut down, resulting in many production enterprises unable to find a suitable alternative heat source.
China is rich in agricultural and forestry biomass resources, with an annual output equivalent to 460 million tons of standard coal, which can fully support the construction of thousands of biomass cogeneration projects of standard scale and fill the energy supply gap after the removal of coal power capacity.
Agricultural and forestry biomass power generation can be called green coal power. It not only has the power generation quality comparable to coal power, but also can replace coal-fired units to provide a stable heat source for industrial production. It has become the best choice for industrial parks and production enterprises.
However, China's agricultural and forestry biomass power generation industry has been seriously ignored, and the policy adjustment is very bad for the investment environment, which seriously restricts the capital's enthusiasm for agricultural and forestry biomass power generation investment, resulting in a small overall installed capacity.
epilogue
After China novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak, the world's manufacturing capacity has been greatly reduced, and many orders have been transferred to China. At present, it is the peak period of the "golden nine silver ten" order, which is the demand for electricity production of second production and three production.
The coal price is rising, the overall scale of coal power is compressed, and the power generation is greatly reduced; The power structure changed by wind power and photovoltaic is not output, and the scale of biomass power generation is too small to return to the sky.
The above factors have caused the imbalance between power supply and demand in China. How to solve the current dilemma requires us to re-examine the coal power de capacity policy and vigorously develop biomass cogeneration projects.
Source: energy industry author: Mu Mu Nan